Having covered the NBA for over two decades, I can honestly say that the second round of the playoffs is where championship mettle is truly forged. It’s funny—for 20 years, tsaka ko lang na-discover how these matchups often reveal more about a team’s identity than the Finals themselves. The first round weeds out the weak, but this stage? This is where contenders either solidify their legacy or crumble under pressure. This year’s conference semifinals are no exception, serving up a tantalizing mix of star power, tactical chess matches, and raw emotion. Let’s break down each series, weigh the key factors, and I’ll share my predictions—because at this point in the season, sitting on the fence just isn’t an option.

First up, the Eastern Conference showdown between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers. On paper, the Celtics look nearly unstoppable—they boasted a 64-18 regular-season record, dominated both ends of the floor, and have Jayson Tatum playing the most efficient basketball of his career. But let’s not forget Cleveland’s resilience. Donovan Mitchell has been otherworldly, averaging 31.4 points per game in the playoffs, and their defensive schemes have disrupted more polished offenses. I’ve watched Boston falter in these spots before, though. Their ball movement can stagnate under pressure, and if Cleveland forces them into isolation-heavy sets, this could get messy. Still, I’m backing the Celtics in six hard-fought games. They’ve got the depth and coaching edge, and frankly, I think their playoff scars from recent years will finally translate into smarter crunch-time execution.

Out West, the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves are set for what I believe will be the most physical series of the round. Nikola Jokić is, well, a wizard—his playoff averages of 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists are just silly. But Minnesota’s defense, anchored by Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, is built to bother him. Anthony Edwards brings an explosive scoring punch that Denver struggled to contain in their regular-season meetings. I’ll admit, I’m slightly biased toward Denver here. Having watched Jokić dismantle elite defenses year after year, I find it hard to bet against him. Yet, Minnesota’s athleticism and length could force him into tougher shots and limit his playmaking. This one feels like it’ll go the distance, but I’m predicting the Nuggets in seven. Experience matters, and Denver’s core has been here before.

Then there’s the Dallas Mavericks versus the Oklahoma City Thunder—a series dripping with narrative. Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving form the most skilled backcourt in the league, but OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a bona fide MVP candidate who’s carried his team with poise beyond his years. The Thunder play with a frenetic, youthful energy, and their 82.3% free-throw accuracy in the playoffs shows their composure. But Dallas has the edge in playoff mileage. I’ve seen Luka take over games single-handedly, and when Kyrie is locked in, he’s virtually unguardable. My heart says Oklahoma City is the future, but my head says Dallas in six. The Mavericks’ offensive firepower will likely overwhelm the Thunder’s defense, especially if role players like Tim Hardaway Jr. hit their shots.

Wrapping up the East, the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers present a classic clash of styles. The Knicks rely on Jalen Brunson’s heroics—he’s putting up 33.6 points per game this postseason—and a gritty, slow-paced approach. Indiana, meanwhile, wants to run at every opportunity, averaging a blistering 112.4 possessions per 48 minutes. As a fan of disciplined half-court basketball, I’m leaning toward New York. Tom Thibodeau’s teams always defend, and Brunson has that “it” factor in close games. But if the Pacers force a track meet, the Knicks’ thin rotation could wear down. I’m calling Knicks in seven, mostly because I trust Brunson to deliver when it matters most.

Looking across these matchups, one theme stands out: balance. Each series pits contrasting strengths against each other, and the margins are razor-thin. Over the years, I’ve learned that playoff success often hinges on which team can impose its will for longer stretches. While stats and matchups provide a framework, intangibles like leadership, health, and sheer desire tend to decide these battles. My predictions might not all hit—after all, basketball is beautifully unpredictable—but based on what I’ve seen, the Celtics, Nuggets, Mavericks, and Knicks have the slight edges to advance. Whatever happens, though, we’re in for two weeks of unforgettable basketball.